目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

小灵通

目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显,具体分析和理由如下(只供讨论,不作参考):
1.主动权偏向卖方:前期松脂减幅远大于松香需求的减少已成事实.表现在许多工厂同期对比减收超过一半(大厂减收更大,部分万吨厂至今不足千吨),而市场需求数量不可能减少一半,从目前市场供求角度看主动权正在偏向卖方.
! r( p1 ]# E3 {: p2.反复试探证实大减产:最近工厂接二连三降低松脂价格,其结果很快反弹,而且反弹力度一次比一次大,足以说明脂量的确偏少,可以说今年大减产已成定局.
/ T: N0 z& e. W) t2 L1 m3.短期内需求将会明显拉动:在松脂大减产的时候,取消松香出口退税,尤其是在合同备案时期内,将加速国外用户锁定全年用量和成本(目的规避政策带来成本增加),因而对下阶段市场需求将会产生明显拉动,同时政策也会有利于刺激国内深加工用量增加.
4.争取时间就是争取效益:今年余下采脂和收购时间不多了,许多产区时间已过三分一,部分产区将快过一半了,用全年供求时间计算,现在买卖双方均显得十分被动,预料下阶段谁也不会再失去时间和市场了.
5.内需价格将带动外需上扬:国内较大深加工厂一直在正常生产,其每期采购的热松香,价格实际上接受松香厂"倒挂"成本,而且松节油需求存在缺口,价格居高不下支撑着市场,,因而现阶段香价跟随脂价上涨已是大势所趋.
6.卖方对后市信心较大:由于前阶段松脂处在大减产的时期,工厂几次打压脂价均失败,必然增强了脂农/脂贩/工厂对后市信心,因而越来越多的人认为:农历七月十四这批松脂,如果工厂松脂数量继续偏少,将会是新一轮涨价的开始,俗话说风水轮流转,说不定今年将是脂农/脂贩/松香厂最有机会翻身的一年.

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朕夜探青楼

还不至于想05年那样，我好几个朋友在那年血本无归最后只能转行搞砖厂

小灵通

现在有些国内外用户开始担心今年中国松香市场会重演05年的历史.

大松鼠

鬼佬为适应中国松香涨价，已经开始大幅度提高终端产品的销售价，估计很快会拉动中国松香的价格。

朕夜探青楼

真没必要太过悲观，其实现在难做的不只是松香，别的产品一样遇到这样那样的困难，夸大困难并不能真正解决困难，逃避困难也只能将困难推迟。