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标题: 政策面临变数 连玉米外强内弱 [打印本页]

作者: hxxyf    时间: 2010-2-26 10:06
标题: 政策面临变数 连玉米外强内弱
  节后美盘玉米强劲反弹,国内玉米高位震荡,上攻无力,强弱明显不同。究其原因,主要在于两国国情不同,主导因素亦不同。
/ s, ]& w, `& S- Z& F- W3 Y& q! }  首先,美玉米仍有可能震荡反弹,天气是主要炒作预期。根据美国农业部报告,2009年美国冬小麦种植面积减少约583万英亩,2009年底到期休耕地为240万英亩,因此初步预计最多有823万英亩田地将转种玉米和大豆,现在问题在于玉米和大豆如何分配这一部分空置面积。统计上,当大豆与玉米的比价达到2-2.5区间时,基本平衡;超过2.5,大豆种植面积将会明显增加,截至2月24日,美国三月大豆与玉米合约的比价约为2.55,意味着2010年大豆种植更具竞争力。
  V1 S7 ]/ q' X, W* {  另外,从美国天气状况来看,2010年初美国玉米种植带饱受暴风雪侵袭,积雪严重,市场亦担心进入玉米播种期,过于潮湿的田地不利玉米播种,农户将会被迫转种大豆。综合而言,3月份,市场对天气的炒作可能助推美国玉米延续反弹,考虑到09/10年度美国玉米结转库存仍然高达4370万吨,目前的定位也仅止于反弹。& u/ }# X. A! \" w9 f
  其次,中国玉米供求面偏空,政策仍是主要支撑因素,只是存在变数。据了解,目前东北农户手中余粮比例约为40-50%,略显偏高,年前玉米需求企业备货充足,短期内补库压力不大。
0 ^! z+ G3 w& P  |  农业政策是目前玉米市场主要支撑因素,但存在一定变数。2009年收购政策是:标准玉米收购价1500元/吨,补贴标准为70元/吨,当市场价格达到1600元/吨时补贴取消。目前,东北三省一区14水玉米收购价在1600-1640元/吨左右,处于国家规定上限区,面临补贴取消的风险。另外,与往年不同,今年玉米采购的补贴范围扩大到南方饲料企业,补贴期限截至4月底,市场由此预期4月底之前,南方饲料企业可能积极抢收,不过,这一点也存在变数,一是需求明显降低,企业收购动力不足,二是有传言称国家将取消南方饲企采购补贴,从目前的市场价格来看,存在这一可能。
6 _) o- U' ~4 e. D0 D, l  由上可知,中美玉米基本面均偏空,不过美国玉米受天气炒作预期,走势偏强,3月仍有震荡反弹可能,这要取决于3月份天气条件;大连玉米表现相对较弱,因需求前景暗淡,而且农业政策存在变数,存在下跌可能。
作者: dfjroclq    时间: 2011-5-17 15:15
8 12, 27 -year-old human resources and 21 -year-old Wu Zhu deliberation robbery cars, pedestrians , the two hit it off. The next morning, pulling a Lee Wu , Wang two occupation . 11 o'clock that morning , Wu and others robbed the station Yim Huayang Sail sedan. Mr. Yan did not find the door locked ,mercurial vapor superfly, taking advantage of the opportunity to brake , he opened the door to escape. 1 @1 b  j9 ~+ C2 h6 A( D% [
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Yim 's car away , Zhu and others together to stay for another vote. At 2:00 on August 15 , several people near the open reaching the Mozi Qiao , and colleagues will be singing just after the hijacking of the railcars on the train home . Miss Lin rushed for help , Zhu , who according to her neck in a chair, a man pulled out a knife to her neck . Drove the car to the urban areas . Miss Lin soon calm down. + |: s7 o) z3 i  Q- k

& r3 |: J. `( V6 S  [6 b4 b Wu , who asked her: 20 million dollars . Ms. Lin said calmly , his home in the county, only the father at work to make money , the mother did not work,nike mercurial, she graduated from college just to work , no savings . And , taking advantage of robbers , and her 0 s: P! c! ]6 z4 p
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this trick really worked. Ms. Lin took the initiative to hand over bank cards and say the password , Zhu , who drove the car to a bank teller Longquanyi out 1400 dollars. Ms. Lin continued to keep a good show, they finally opened a little way , will set her free. Put before her, the famous robbers




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