高价松香背后看到了什么？？？？？

xinzhijingjie · 发表于 2011-1-16 17:08:00

松香从2009年10月份开始价格一路飙升，从6000/吨涨到2010年4月份的16500/吨，在4月份中旬开始由于新松香即将上市，价格有所回落，到8月低价格价格触底，到达9500/吨，然而8月是生产的中期，8月份中旬开始，价格逆势反弹，以不是一路飙升可以描述，有人称为变态，也有人称为疯狂，还有人说是过山车。到2010年10月份下旬价格到了20000/吨，11份上旬甚至有过21000/吨，11月12月份价格相对稳定，基本都在19500-20500之间波动，不过元旦之后，人们又感受到了新的一波涨价潮了，可以再次认识松香市场的内在魔力。

松香高价，可以说是很多原因造成的，有市场的原因，也有人为的推动，有气候的影响，也有国家调控的作用。现在松香高价，甚至是超高价位已经形成，我们需要考虑的是：在高价背后，未来会怎么样，松香行业未来的发展会怎么样，是回归理性回归自然的软着陆，还是一夜崩盘引起行业地震？

一、松香在经历了2009年下半年中国西南大旱，2010年上半年中国西南连续洪涝灾害之后，根据各个方面的数据显示，中国2010年松香产量没有根本性的减少。究其原因：掠夺式的开采是主因。常年出油量少的，松树树龄不到开采年限的都没有开采，今年有报道，很多地方松树直径在10公分一下的都被采脂。2010脂农是赚钱了，但是对于小松树，过早采脂，其抗病虫害能力将大大降低，其生长速度将大大降低，其采脂量也将受到很大的影响；

二、松香高价，使得松香行业市场更加混乱。松香厂缺斤少两，以次充好已不再是新闻、在利益的驱动下出卖良心违背商业道德自主毁约的情况也不少见、行业瓶颈被打破（在松脂收购价格在19000/吨的时侯，市场上竟然出现了价位在17000/吨的松香，当然质量方面可想而知），等等问题不仅仅影响松香行业的正常发展，也将给其他相关行业带来不可估量的损失；

三、松香行业下游产业链中的油墨、涂料、胶粘剂、油漆等行业如果2009年之前是暴利行业而言，那么现在对于绝大多少油墨、涂料、胶粘剂、油漆生产商来说进入了微利时代，甚至有些厂家进入了亏损阶段。因为成品的价格要么涨不了，要么涨点点，反正和松香的涨幅和涨速相比相差太远；在成本的压力下，下游商家一方面努力寻求替代产品，减少松香的用量，另一方面努力调整或者开发新的配方，总之以降低成本为目标，减少企业对松香的依赖和减少松香对企业的束缚；

四、松香现在可以说是高价，也可以说是超高价位，相信在未来的某个时间还是要回归理性回归自然，只是其方式如何值得商榷。如果是长时间的缓慢的有序的逐步的下降，相信企业不分大小，都能将其风险消化或者分散；如果是一夜崩盘，那么对于持有大量松香的厂家或者经销商可以说就是就是一种灾难，对于行业的影响还未知。不过我相信一夜崩盘，必将使得整个松香行业进行一轮大的洗牌，抗风险能力低的企业最终宣布破产或者是被收购的命运，行业品牌必将进一步集中；

五、松香高价对于松香人来说是赚钱的好时机，但是对于一个企业来说，在赚钱之余，更重要的是要增强企业的市场竞争力，强化企业的核心竞争力。中国松香加工企业在10000家左右，但是能进行松香深加工的企业就很少了。利用有利的时机进行企业的产业升级技术改造是一个有实力企业需要考虑的问题；

六、世界松香看中国，中国松香看华南，华南松香看广西。广西的松香行情，特别是出口的行情很大程度上决定了世界松香市场的发展方向。松香高价，需要中国企业抱团作战，在保证质量和服务的同时要努力提高中国松香企业在世界的话语权和定价权。

松香高价已经是个事实，其有形无形的作用和影响需要每个相关的人努力去认识去体会。现在看来松香高价未必是福，松香高价也未必是祸，关键还是看松香人如何去应对，如何去引导，把握全局，利用所有能利用的信息进行科学的分析并进行预测，尽量将风险化于无形，将行业推向正常有序的发展轨道。

此文未经允许不得转载，否则作者有权追究法律责任！！！

火烧云 · 发表于 2011-1-16 20:23:00

总结得非常好! 大家顶一个!!

但我的看法, 希望目前松香及其深加工企业抱团以争取世界的话语权还太早了,原因很简单,并不是中国人不团结,而是我们的厂家数量太多,规模太小了,不容易形成统一的意见.你没看到之所以铁矿石说涨就涨, 还是三家大公司起主要作用,其它小公司也是跟庄的.

不管怎样, 很欣赏楼主的心思和大局观.

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路过顶帖..............................　淘宝刷钻

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路过顶帖..............................　

zhijue · 发表于 2011-4-1 10:20:00

好贴

xlwc · 发表于 2011-5-22 08:48:00

好文章！楼主厉害！

mxiendo9g · 发表于 2011-5-23 17:36:00

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similar cases: Kelong Ka per 2,500 yuan

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mxiendo9g · 发表于 2011-5-23 17:37:00

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kajn678001 · 发表于 2011-6-14 00:01:00

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